PERDAGANGAN MATAWANG

(Ini adalah rencana bersiri mengenai aliran semasa yang membawa kepada krisis kewangan masakini. Rencana asal di dalam bahasa Inggeris telah disiarkan di dalam blog ini pada April 28, 2009)

1. Perdagangan matawang merupakan satu lagi penyumbang palsu kepada kemewahan negara-negara kaya. Perniagaan ini sekali lagi melibatkan wang yang tidak ujud. Bank akan pinjamkan sehingga 30 kali jumlah wang pelabur yang dipegang pedagang. Sekali lagi pinjaman diujudkan oleh wang rekaan bank. Begitu juga dengan wang pelabur jika ianya dipinjam dari bank.

2. Pinjaman yang besar oleh pedagang matawang membolehkan mereka memanipulasikan pasaran; menolak naik atau turun nilai matawang. Apabila nilai matawang bertukar peniaga mengaut untung. Kerana peniaga matawang mengawal beribu billion dollar, keuntungan mereka amatlah besar, dan begitu juga dengan dividen yang dibayar kepada pelabur.

3. Perniagaan matawang dianggarkan 20 kali lebih besar daripada jumlah keseluruhan perdagangan dunia. Pulangan ke atas setiap dolar yang dilaburkan akan lebih tinggi berbanding dividen daripada pengeluaran dan perdagangan barangan dan pemberian perkhidmatan. Dengan itu pelabur dan peniaga akan mendapat perolehan yang lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan sekiranya mereka melabur hanya modal yang ada pada mereka.

4. Individu tidak boleh pinjam 30 kali ganda wang yang mereka miliki untuk dilabur. Tetapi peniaga matawang boleh. Demikian kecenderungan pelabur untuk melabur melalui pedagang matawang.

5. Perniagaan matawang bukanlah untuk melabur dalam perniagaan atau perdagangan. Ianya diperjudikan ke atas kenaikan atau kemerosotan sesuatu matawang. Walau apa sekalipu jadi pada matawang (naik atau turun), penjudi (peniaga) akan untung. Kerana untung adalah daripada pelaburan lebih 30 kali ganda duit pelabur, kedua-dua peniaga dan pelabur akan mengaut untung yang jauh lebih tinggi daripada pelaburan dengan jumlah modal asal.

6. Keuntungan yang diperoleh peniaga dan pelabur ini akan dengan satu cara atau lain dimasukkan di dalam perkiraan KDNK dan pendapatan per kapita negara. Dengan itu angka-angka petunjuk ini menjadi begitu tinggi.

By Dr. Mahathir Mohamad on May 15, 2009 8:43 AM |

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph

The pair went above level 1.3550 – key resistance had been passed; owing to that, target of the pair’s growth is now set at resistance level 1.3910. Support is at 1.3550.





Daily graph

Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.



forexmillion.com

Two Types of Trading Losers

There are a whole host of characters who regularly lose money in the market place, and most fall into two catogories:

1) False Ego Traders

2) Nervous Traders

The false ego mistakes come from a mixture of false pride and bravado and are the most dangerous mistakes to make. The trader, generally a beginner or intermediate -- call him Tader A -- gets an opinion in his head about market direction. His analysis may have even been sound, but his opinion keeps him from reading/seeing the signs that a change is occuring in the market he has targeted. He subconsciously see the changes, but false pride is the devil, and blocks the information from making it into his conscious decision making process. The change he needs to see may even be pointed out to him by a fellow trader --Trader B-- but Trader A's false ego blocks this because he knows "I'm smarter than Trader B...In fact I think its a good idea to fade Trader B".

Trader A is also likely someone who is accustomed to being listened to. He may have been upper management in a company, or even owned the company. "People better listen to me" is how he sees it. He is likely more accustomed to talking rather then listening.

Despite trader A's previous success' Mother Market will bring him down quickly. Any early success he has in the market will only make for bigger losses down the road as he gets caught in the spiral of trying to make up for lost money and still make money. He doesn't just want to get his money back, he wants that and then some. His time is valuable. He is going to make the market pay.

Well we all know how that works out, which is to say we won't be seeing Trader A around for long.

Then there is Trader C, who is a nervous trader. Trader C is nervous because he had a bad day trading early on, and could not stop thinking that if he lost that same amount of money every day, he would be penniless in 54 trading days. Trader C worked hard his whole life, and despite having never got the big promotion or raise Trader C managed to save some money. Trader C is not used to people listening to him. But he is good at seeing things develop around him which makes him sensitive to change. This is a good thing for Trader C, who is more an analyst than a trader. But Trader C can never seem to catch the big one because every time he sees a trade up decent money, he remembers that loser in the begining, and he grabs the money rather then let the profit run. He also sets his stops too tight, and has a hard time following the rules when a trade goes against him. Trader C needs a shot of Trader A's bravado. There are a lot of Trader C's in the market place.

Often times Trader A types who survive will morph into Trader C types. Trader C though is in his rut becasue he can't seem to make more than he risks.

The way to avoid being someone who ends up paying the advertising costs for the big Forex firms like Trader's A & C is to understand how dangerous and competitve trading is to begin with. And prepare for it from that mind-set. Be "reality orientated".

Two things I hear a lot in this busienss:

#1) I wish I would have started out demo trading.

#2) I wish I would have stayed in my demo account longer.

I've been around the trading game since 1980 and I can tell you that most of you will see something in yourself in Trader A & Trader C.

Beleve me, we all have more in common than we are different.

And when you shine a light on something that had been in the shadows, the shadows disappear.


Jay Norris - Trading-U.com

EUR/USD - Weekly Forex Analysis for April 20-24, 2009

Posted on April 18, 2009 at 20:40 in Analysis by James Chen


EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) continued its expected bearishness for most of the past week after rising during the beginning of the week to approach once again the long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of 1.6 back in July. Friday’s (4/17/2009) substantial bearishness broke cleanly below the key 1.3100 support/resistance level, and then closely approached the equally significant 1.3000 level before closing out the trading week. Price is currently at a critical juncture for the upcoming week of April 20-24, 2009. Any strong break below 1.3000 should signify substantial and continuing bearishness in the pair that could eventually target February and March lows in the 1.2500 price region. To the upside, the 1.3300 region and the noted long-term downtrend resistance line which is currently just above it, should serve as major upside resistance within the context of the current overall downtrend.

James Chen, CTA, CMT

EUR/USD - Weekly Forex Analysis for April 13-17, 2009

Posted on April 11, 2009 at 16:32 in Analysis by James Chen



EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) was bearish for the entire past week as price retested and then bounced down off a long-term downtrend resistance line (extending from the 2nd test of the 1.6 all-time high last July), and then subsequently broke down below a short-term uptrend support line (extending from the 1.2455 low in early March). By the past week’s close, price had retested strong support around 1.3100, descending all the way down to 1.3088, before being tentatively rejected by support. The upcoming week of April 13-17, 2009 should bring some substantial price action after the major holiday weekend. To the upside, strong resistance still resides in the 1.3300 price region, with further dynamic resistance around the noted long-term downtrend resistance line. At this time, the directional bias continues to be bearish overall, as this pair is still within the bounds of a long-term downtrend. Any break below the 1.3100 region should easily target major support/resistance around 1.3000. And any significant breakdown below this latter level would be a considerably bearish indication that could target further key support around 1.2750 to the downside.

James Chen, CTA, CMT

April 09 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart and the pair still trapped in the triangle area. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.3147 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 1.3307 and closed at 1.3279. On 4h chart below we can see that the trendline support has provided a good support for the Euro. A breakdown to the downside should trigger further bearish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3310. Break above that level should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3360 and 1.3415 resistance area. Initial support at 1.3147 (yesterday’s low). Break below that support area could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3050 – 1.3000 area. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).



EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

* S1= 1.3181
* S2= 1.3084
* S3= 1.3021
* R1= 1.3341
* R2= 1.3404
* R3= 1.3501


GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday formed a Doji formation on daily chart. On hourly chart we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation. The bias remains unclear in nearest term. A break on either side of the triangle area should give us clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4775. Break above that level should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.4850/90 resistance area. Initial support at 1.4635 – 1.4580 area. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.



GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

* S1= 1.4650
* S2= 1.4586
* S3= 1.4539
* R1= 1.4761
* R2= 1.4808
* R3= 1.4872


USDJPY Outlook

The violated rising wedge formation I showed yesterday has give us a valid bearish scenario so far. Yesterday the pair bottomed at 99.31 and closed at 99.73. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 98.90 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 100.35 resistance area.



USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

* S1= 99.07
* S2= 98.42
* S3= 97.53
* R1= 100.61
* R2= 101.50
* R3= 102.15


USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF had another moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On hourly chart we can see that the trendline support (former resistance) still provide a good support. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1540 and 1.1600 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 1.1430/00 support area.



USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

* S1= 1.1413
* S2= 1.1361
* S3= 1.1309
* R1= 1.1517
* R2= 1.1569
* R3= 1.1621

Have a great day!

Thursday, 09th of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph

I supposed a growth to level 1.3750 in the previous forecast, but I also stated an intermediate resistance at 1.3570 on the way to this level. It turned out that this resistance was not intermediate; it was a major resistance at which the trend had turned. If you look at the wave mark-up, it’s quite clearly seen that all 5 waves had been executed, and resistance 1.3570 was the level of their execution. I was going to tell about it in the previous forecast, but I didn’t feel like confusing anyone with so many layers of variants to develop at one graph. However, now I realize I should have done it.

What we have now is the process of forming the “double top” turning figure (“a-a+” trend). A downtrend has already started to develop, so level 1.3375 is an intermediate support, and resistances are at 1.3415 - 1.3455, starting from there selling is worthwhile. After the “M” trend line gets broken, the descending intention will be amplified and the pair will reach the support 1.3112 - the basis of the “double top” figure from daily graph.

Daily graph



forexmillion.com